Conservative-leaning sites like the National Review often provided excellent coverage of the campaign. Independent evaluations also judged FiveThirtyEight’s forecast to be the most accurate (or perhaps better put, the least inaccurate) of the models. 538's Final 2016 Forecast Silver did have many words of caution in his Final Election Update on November 8, 2016. For other detailed reflections, I’d recommend my colleague Clare Malone’s piece on what Trump’s win in the primary told us about the Republican Party, and my article on how the media covered Trump during the nomination process. It’s tempting to use the inauguration as an excuse to finally close the chapter on the 2016 election and instead turn the page to the four years ahead. There’s obviously a lot to criticize in how certain statistical models were designed, for instance. Furthermore, editors and reporters make judgments about the horse race in order to decide which stories to devote resources to and how to frame them for their readers: Go back and read their coverage and it’s clear that The Washington Post was prepared for the possibility of a Trump victory in a way that The New York Times wasn’t, for instance. Interestingly enough, the analytical errors made by reporters covering the campaign often mirrored those made by the modelers. Something like the opposite was true in the general election, in our view. If you go back and check our coverage, you’ll see that most of these points are things that FiveThirtyEight (and sometimes also other data-friendly news sites) raised throughout the campaign. The morning after America learned that Donald Trump will improbably be Americaâs next president, Nate Silver, over delicious scrambled eggs with lox ⦠[��_��1��n���7���K翌_������cZ/.��E:cdw۷~�]F7��. But they won’t be easy to correct unless journalists’ incentives or the culture of political journalism change. One nice thing about statistical forecasts is that they donât leave a lot of room for ambiguity. Nate Silver . Senate. 'FiveThirtyEight' Statistician Nate Silver Reports On The 2016 Election Silver analyzes polls and predicts election outcomes on his website, FiveThirtyEight. While it’s challenging to judge a probabilistic forecast on the basis of a single outcome, we have no doubt that we got the Republican primary “wrong.”. I obviously have a detailed perspective on this — but in a macroscopic view, the following elements seem essential: This is an uncomfortable story for the mainstream American press. Most of these mistakes were replicated by other mainstream news organizations, and also often by empirically minded journalists and model-builders. The Polls -- Vol. In an online chat session a week after the 2012 election Silver commented: "As tempting as it might be to pull a Jim Brown/Sandy Koufax and just mic-drop/retire from elections forecasting, I expect that we'll be making forecasts in 2014 and 2016. We even got into a couple of very public screaming matches with people who we thought were unjustly overconfident in Trump’s chances. â -- Election forecaster Nate Silver said on Sunday that Hillary Clinton is the clear favorite to be the next president but argued the race is closer than most analysts are anticipating. He also led in our ânow-castâ at various points in time, but the now-cast was intended as a projection of a hypothetical election held that day rather than the Nov. 8 outcome. To others, it will seem foolish. Some of the models were based only on the past few elections, ignoring earlier years, such as 1980, when the polling had been way off. It was about 3 points in 2016. This is the story of Election Day in 2016, from the last gasp campaign events, to the heady (for Clinton) early hours and glorious (for Trump) evening. It mostly contradicts the way they covered the election while it was underway (when demographics were often assumed to provide Clinton with an Electoral College advantage, for instance). (Media consolidation may itself be a part of the reason that Trump’s chances were underestimated, insofar as it contributed to groupthink about his chances.) The first half will cover what I view as technical errors, while the second half will fall under the heading of journalistic errors and cognitive biases. Meanwhile, he beat his polls by only 2 to 3 percentage points in the average swing state.3 Certainly, there were individual pollsters that had some explaining to do, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Trump beat his polls by a larger amount. (If Clinton had won Michigan and Wisconsin, she’d still have only 258 electoral votes.4 To beat Trump, she’d have also needed a state such as Pennsylvania or Florida where she campaigned extensively.) Recommended to you based on your activity and what's popular ⢠Feedback His name is not Nate Silver or Sam Wang or Nate Cohn. II, six forecasting models tracked by The New York Times, very, very deep dive into the Pennsylvania data, still had a number of obstacles to overcome, struggles to excite among millennial voters, wrote of a potential âpopulist revoltâ against Clinton, expanding Republicansâ strategic options, documented Trumpâs support among senior citizens, profile of life inside the Trump âbunkerâ, signs of poor turnout for Clinton among black voters, gave four pollsters the same data and got four different results. Nate Silverâs FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis â hard numbers â to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. © 2020 ABC News Internet Ventures. On Nov. 1, Karen Tumulty and Paul Kane described how Clintonâs email problems — brought back to life by the Comey letter — were, Bloomberg often provided good reporting on Trumpâs data operations — taking them more seriously than other news outlets — including this Oct. 27, Not every article from The New York Timesâs political desk was a misfire. And if almost everyone got the first draft of history wrong in 2016, perhaps there’s still time to get the second draft right. Throughout the campaign, the polls had hallmarks of high uncertainty, indicating a volatile election with large numbers of undecided voters. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. And I don’t expect many of the answers to be obvious or easy. If youâd published a model that put Trumpâs chances at 10 percent, for example, you could defend that as having been a reasonable forecast given the data available to you, or you could say the result had revealed a flaw in the model. Most of the models didn’t account for the additional uncertainty added by the large number of undecided and third-party voters, a factor that allowed Trump to catch up to and surpass Clinton in states such as Michigan. Still, when Democrats saw Trump win states like Florida and Ohio after Biden had jumped out to early leads, it undoubtedly brought back memories of the 2016 election. Here are just a few examples of excellent horse-race reporting that my colleagues and I learned something from at FiveThirtyEight. But we’ve already covered these modeling issues at length both before and after the election, so I won’t dwell on them quite as much here. Traditional journalists, as I’ll argue in this series of articles, mostly interpreted the polls as indicating extreme confidence in Clinton’s chances, however. Donald Trump a 'Narrow Favorite to Win Electoral College Says Nate Silver. Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. Trump made a mockery of the predictions of all the erudite analytical election forecast modelers. WATCH: SNL Cold Open Tackles Halloween, 2016, and Tuesdayâs Election: âThis Daylight Saving Time, Letâs Gain an Hour and Lose a President!â ... FiveThirtyEightâs Nate Silver ⦠Perhaps the biggest myth is when traditional journalists claim they weren’t making predictions about the outcome. To be clear, if the polls themselves have gotten too much blame, then misinterpretation and misreporting of the polls is a major part of the story. At the same time, a relatively small group of journalists and news organizations, including the Times, has a disproportionate amount of influence on how political events are understood by large segments of the American public. Election statistics gurus Nate Silver and Nate Cohn, who run the data analysis sites FiveThirtyEight and The New York Timesâ Upshot, respectively, were quick to ⦠Then I’ll have some concluding thoughts. As editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, which takes a different and more data-driven perspective than many news organizations, I don’t claim to speak to every question about how to cover Trump. There is only one person who correctly forecast the U.S. presidential election of 2016. 2: These articles will mostly critique how conventional horse-race journalism assessed the election, although with several exceptions. Ground rule No. An article it published on Nov. 1 smartly focused on, Elsewhere at the Times, Nate Cohn at The Upshot provided a number of excellent analyses, including a Sept. 20 article that, And from the start of the general election onward, Sean Trende at RealClearPolitics. The tone and emphasis of our coverage drew attention to the uncertainty in the outcome and to factors such as Clinton’s weak position in the Electoral College, since we felt these were misreported and neglected subjects. Since the logistic regression is a better choice, Iâll assume he is using that. Analysis. In the week leading up to Election Day, Clinton was only barely ahead in the states she’d need to secure 270 electoral votes. All rights reserved. It looks similar for Biden â around a 3-point gap. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! To some of you, a forecast that showed Trump with about a 30 percent chance of winning when the consensus view was that his chances were around 15 percent6 will self-evidently seem smart. But you couldnât really pretend that youâd put Trumpâs chances at 40 percent instead. ... Biden would still "probably hold on" and win key states that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 by narrow margins. 2016 Election (1129) We’ll release these a couple of articles at a time over the course of the next few weeks, adding links as we go along. But for better or worse, what we’re saying here isn’t just hindsight bias. On Friday at noon, a Category 5 political cyclone that few journalists saw coming will deposit Donald Trump atop the Capitol Building, where he’ll be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States. Election post-mortems by major news organizations have tended to skirt past how much importance they attached to FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress on Oct. 28, for instance, and how much the polls shifted toward Trump in the immediate aftermath of Comey’s letter. ?��/O���ſ=��~���W������z�:��Ϟ�쵟>8{���ϯ�~{~yr���~��w�tf�>����ڣ���|����{���=�G����ٳ���y7�7?������.��O��X�/���髓����>?��������'^L������~r���������L��c{��t��hw�j�;�~v��oϿ�>�__��z֏�N������Ϟ�=ʱԟ��!�'�2/����Y�Ύ�H�xT�~��O��I��˭�����^x� ɞ��t���hw���|u�'϶Ov��m����R�x��`~r~r�y~��Mp����rw�o������G���k/�x��Q��D��~�'A��2�W�^mo�v��ξa��ܗǏ>�>�����i�ոԶĚװ�>c�Ov��]כw���MXo��7�ӒZ 1�;6�|���Zn�~b����|���mϏ�>��?m�?����-��_�Ƅ����{z�{�{y�]o�^{����� j:;? Specifically, Trump beat his FiveThirtyEight adjusted polling average by a net of 2.7 percentage points in the average state, weighted by the stateâs likelihood of being the tipping-point state. Moreover, we “leaned into” this view in the tone and emphasis of our articles, which often scolded the media for overrating Trump’s chances. If almost everyone got the first draft of history wrong in 2016, perhaps there’s still time to get the second draft right. He makes the case for either a large or small impact, and leans personally to a small one, which dropped her lead in swing states from 4.5 points to just 1.7 points a couple days before the election. But the result was not some sort of massive outlier; on the contrary, the polls were pretty much as accurate as they’d been, on average, since 1968. While our model almost never5 had Trump as an outright favorite, it gave him a much better chance than other statistical models, some of which had him with as little as a 1 percent chance of victory. This is not an arbitrary choice. Nate Silver describes rivalry in election ⦠Statistics junkie Nate Silver uses data to predict everything from internet slang to Oscar winners to the US Presidential election. U.S. Nate Silver Polls 2020 Election Politics. He wants to delegitimize their results even though they've correctly predicted the 2016 and 2018 elections. By contrast, some traditional reporters and editors have built a revisionist history about how they covered Trump and why he won. For instance, he could have won the Electoral College by winning Nevada and New Hampshire (and the 2nd Congressional District of Maine) even if Clinton had held onto Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. While FiveThirtyEight’s final “polls-only” forecast gave Trump a comparatively generous 3-in-10 chance (29 percent) of winning the Electoral College, it was somewhat outside the consensus, with some other forecasts showing Trump with less than a 1 in 100 shot. 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